Trade War Retaliation Will Hurt Trump Voters the Most

As President Trump places tariffs on goods from other countries, foreign governments are fighting back by imposing their own tariffs on American products. These retaliatory tariffs are designed to put economic pressure on the U.S. government, but they may end up hurting the very voters who supported Trump the most.

How Tariffs Work

Tariffs are taxes on imports and exports. Trump has introduced tariffs on products from China, Canada, and Europe, arguing that they will help protect American industries and create jobs. However, these countries are responding by placing tariffs on American goods, which makes them more expensive and harder to sell overseas.

Who Will Be Affected?

Foreign countries are specifically targeting industries that employ nearly 8 million Americans. The majority of these jobs—about 4.48 million—are in areas that voted for Trump in the last election. Industries such as agriculture, car manufacturing, coal, and steel production are being hit the hardest.

For example:

• China is placing tariffs on corn farmers and car manufacturers.

• Canada is targeting poultry farms and air-conditioning manufacturers.

• Europe is going after American steel mills and meat processing plants.

Why Are These Jobs at Risk?

When American products become more expensive due to tariffs, other countries buy from different suppliers. For example, during Trump's first term, China responded to tariffs by buying soybeans from Argentina and Brazil instead of the U.S. As a result, American farmers lost business and struggled to recover even after the tariffs were lifted.

The same thing is happening now. With foreign countries targeting American industries, companies may see lower sales, which could lead to job losses, pay cuts, or even plant closures.

The Hardest-Hit States

Some of the states most affected by retaliatory tariffs include:

• Wisconsin: 9.5% of jobs in the state are in industries affected by tariffs.

• Indiana: 8.5% of jobs could be impacted.

• Iowa: 8.4% of jobs are at risk.

• Other states at high risk: Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, and Kansas.

These states rely heavily on agriculture and manufacturing—two industries that foreign countries are targeting with tariffs.

Will Trump’s Strategy Backfire?

Trump has argued that tariffs will protect American jobs, but economists warn that the overall impact might be negative. One study found that during Trump’s first term, the job losses caused by retaliatory tariffs outweighed any benefits from the tariffs he placed on foreign goods. Even financial aid provided to farmers to offset their losses wasn’t enough to make up for the long-term damage.

Mark Muro, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, pointed out that foreign governments are deliberately focusing on industries in rural areas that overwhelmingly voted for Trump. “They know exactly where it hurts,” he said.

What’s Next?

In a recent speech to Congress, Trump acknowledged that farmers and manufacturers might struggle in the short term. “There may be a little disturbance,” he said, adding, “We are OK with that.” He told farmers they might need to “bear with me again.”

As the trade war escalates, it remains to be seen whether Trump’s supporters will continue to stand by him or if the economic impact will change their perspective.