Rural Voters and Farmers Are Souring on Trump — And the Numbers Show It

For years, rural America has been one of the most reliable sources of support for Donald Trump. But new polling data suggests that foundation is showing serious cracks — and farmers struggling to keep their operations afloat may be at the center of that shift.

A Fox News poll conducted May 15–18, 2026, among 1,002 registered voters nationwide found that Trump's net approval rating among rural voters has swung a dramatic 34 points in the wrong direction since early 2025 — dropping from +20 to -14. Among rural white voters specifically, the slide has been nearly as steep, falling from +27 to -6 over the same period. That puts both groups at their lowest point in this polling series.

The poll was jointly conducted by Beacon Research, a Democratic-leaning firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-leaning firm. Respondents were reached by landline, cellphone, and text-to-web surveys drawn randomly from a national voter file, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

What the Numbers Actually Mean for Voters

Trump's overall approval rating in the poll sits at 39 percent — just one point above the lowest mark recorded in this series. But the more telling story is what's happening within the groups that have historically kept his numbers afloat.

On the economy, only 29 percent of all voters approved of Trump's handling of the issue, while 71 percent disapproved. Rural voters were nearly identical: 30 percent approved, 70 percent disapproved. On inflation specifically, approval dropped even further — just 24 percent of all voters and 28 percent of rural voters said they approved of how Trump has handled rising prices.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who runs the survey alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, noted that the erosion is beginning to reach voters who had previously remained loyal.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit," Shaw said. "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

Even on border security — long one of Trump's strongest issues — approval has dipped to 49 percent nationally, tipping into negative territory for the first time this term. Rural voters still lean positive on that issue at 54 percent approval, but the trend lines are moving in the same direction across the board.

Why Farmers Are Feeling the Pressure

Behind the polling numbers is a farming sector under serious financial stress. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, farm bankruptcies surged 46 percent in 2025 compared to the year before — a sign that many agricultural operations are struggling to stay solvent.

The escalating conflict with Iran has pushed fertilizer and diesel prices higher, which hits farming operations especially hard because those are two of the biggest ongoing costs for any working farm. When energy prices rise, so does the cost of nearly everything it takes to plant, grow, and harvest a crop.

Willis Nelson, a Louisiana farmer, described the situation in direct terms, explaining that his family has been forced to cut back on fertilizer because farming with normal inputs is no longer financially viable.

"We're not financially able" to operate as normal, Nelson said, adding that "we just don't have the margin."

"It's tough, you know, very tough on us," Nelson added, as his multigenerational farm faces the prospect of bankruptcy.

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder put the cost increases into concrete terms that illustrate just how much the business of farming has changed in a short period of time.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors," Yoder said in comments shared by Farm Action from an interview with US Farm Report. "I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Trade tensions with China have added another layer of difficulty. Reduced Chinese demand for American soybeans and other agricultural exports has left many farmers with weaker prices and fewer places to sell what they grow. Compounding that frustration, Trump's recent comments during a trip to Beijing — in which he argued that restricting foreign ownership of U.S. farmland would hurt land values — struck many farmers as out of step with their concerns about foreign interests acquiring American agricultural land.

How This Could Affect Future Elections

Rural voters don't just matter as a demographic — they play an outsized role in determining outcomes in competitive Senate and House races, particularly in states where margins are narrow. Even modest shifts in rural turnout or enthusiasm can flip a congressional district or determine which party controls the Senate.

With midterm elections on the horizon, the erosion of support in a group that has been central to Republican electoral math represents a real political challenge. If financial pressure continues to mount on farmers and rural communities, that dissatisfaction is likely to show up not just in polls but at the ballot box.

The White House pushed back on the polling data, framing the numbers as a temporary snapshot rather than a lasting trend. Spokesman Kush Desai argued that the economy has remained strong under Trump's leadership.

"As this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term," Desai said.

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to Trump's 2024 election victory as the more meaningful measure of public support.

"The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda," Ingle said, adding that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more."

Whether those arguments resonate with farmers watching their input costs climb and their profit margins shrink remains to be seen. For now, the data suggests that rural America — once among Trump's most dependable strongholds — is asking harder questions about whether current policies are working for them.